So I got this idea to look into football stats for betting and just understanding players better, especially after hearing about that Real Madrid vs Girona match last month. Figured I’d share how I messed around with it step by step.
Starting Simple with Basic Numbers
First thing I did was pull up Real Madrid’s season stats on some free football site. Focused on those home games at Santiago Bernabéu, where they almost never lose. Then compared to Girona’s away record. Saw Madrid had like 80% win rate at home while Girona dropped points in half their away matches. Obvious pattern, but wondered if player stats gave better clues.
Digging Into Individual Performances
Got curious about Jude Bellingham after his crazy start this season. Looked at his shots on target per game versus Girona’s defenders. For Girona, checked Artem Dovbyk’s aerial duel wins since Madrid’s defense is shorter. Took me forever to find consistent stats on headers though – some sites count duels differently which screwed up my notes.
Trying to Connect Stats to Betting
Okay here’s where things got messy. I thought “cool player stats should help me place smarter bets” right? Not even close. Example: saw Bellingham averages 2 key passes per game and Vinicius loves dribbling past defenders. So I considered betting on Madrid winning & both teams scoring since Girona attacks a lot too. Complete nightmare trying to mix team stats with player stats for betting odds.
- Mistake 1: Forgot goalkeepers! Lunin had low save percentage that month but stats didn’t show why (injury? bad day?)
- Mistake 2: Girona’s away stats were inflated by beating weak teams – useless against Madrid’s level
- Mistake 3: Late game subs like Joselu change dynamics but injury reports were buried in tiny footnotes
Ended up ignoring my own analysis and went with gut feeling. Probably why I lost €20 on over 3.5 goals when it finished 1-0. Kicking myself for not seeing Madrid’s defense tightened up without injured Militao.
What Actually Worked for Understanding Players
Where stats DID help was spotting undervalued guys. Like Antonio Rüdiger having 90% tackle success against left-wingers – explains why he pocketed Girona’s wingers all game. Also noticed Yangel Herrera’s distance covered stats reveal why Girona collapses late (dude was gassed by 70th minute every away game). These patterns make watching matches way more interesting now.
Final takeaway? Stats give fun insights about players if you’re just learning football. For betting? Absolute minefield unless you’re tracking injuries/tactics daily. Sticking to player comparisons next time instead of risking cash.