How This All Started
Okay, so I got obsessed with this Girona vs Real Madrid match coming up. Figured, hey, everyone just guesses based on feelings or vibes, right? There must be a smarter way using their old games. Wanted to see if their history against each other actually meant anything for predicting the next one. Sounded simple enough at first.
What I Actually Did Step-by-Step
First step was digging up the numbers. Went hunting online for any site showing past matches between these two. Found a few results sites listing dates, scores, who played at home. Copied all that mess into a blank spreadsheet myself. Took forever, just boring typing.
Then I tried making sense of this pile of numbers. Started by calculating basic things:
- How many times Madrid actually beat Girona (turned out to be a LOT).
- How often Girona managed even a draw at home.
- The total goals scored in each game, looking for crazy high-scoring patterns.
Spent ages just typing =SUM and =AVERAGE formulas in the spreadsheet. Eyeballing the columns trying to spot anything obvious. Did it all manually.
Got excited about home games… Thought maybe Girona playing at home made a big difference. So I filtered just those past games in Girona. Crunched the numbers again: wins, draws, goals for Girona when hosting Madrid. Results? Still pretty bleak for them honestly.
Also looked at recent form. Scrolled through their last few games against anyone, not just each other. See who was hot or cold lately. Found some league tables showing their current streaks. Threw those numbers into my sheet too, just to see.
The “Aha!” Moment & Why It Wasn’t That Simple
All this number-crunching gave me a picture. Madrid absolutely dominated the history. Like, way more wins, way more goals. Even in Girona’s house. The recent form also showed Madrid being… well, Madrid. Strong.
Felt confident! Thought the past said it all. Predicted a solid Madrid win. Maybe 3-1? Laughed at people just guessing based on gut feeling.
But then I actually watched the match… Or rather, checked the result later. Turns out football laughs at your spreadsheets sometimes. The game ended differently from what all my “past stats guide” clearly pointed to. Something unexpected happened – a late goal, maybe Girona fought way harder, maybe Madrid had an off day. My prediction flopped. Classic!
What I Learned For Real
So, was the whole exercise useless? Nah. The stats gave a strong trend. Madrid was massively favored for logical reasons. But this reinforced the biggest thing: football is chaos wrapped in a spreadsheet. Past performance gives you clues, maybe a likely path, but it can’t see the future surprise. Injuries happen, weird ref calls happen, a player has a magic day. Stats are just one piece of a messy puzzle.
Will I do this again? Sure! It’s fun digging into the history. But next time? I’ll definitely whisper “probably” a lot louder and keep the BBQ sauce handy for when the stats eventually get it wrong. Gotta respect the chaos!
